Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

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7 PM is when this really starts. Polls close in all or most of Florida, Virginia and Georgia. We’ll get a bunch of results pretty quickly. Here’s my results watching guide. Of course, you can find all results in our map right you can see to the right. In these states we also have big governors races.

7:07 PM: We’re seeing a lot of bouncy numbers out of Florida. These results can only be be interpreted by seeing what counties and regions they’re from. I’ll try to give indications of what those are telling us.

7:16 PM: Results out of Florida shows some positive signs in the details. Still way to early to say anything with confidence – that’s for Senate and Gov. Also decent signs on the House side in Florida. Check the map for all the results or you can go directly to my races to watch in my guide.

7:21 PM: Meanwhile, these very lopsided numbers for Donnelly in Indiana are not going to stay that lopsided. But that race is looking considerably more promising for Republicans than Florida.

This is key re early leads for Dems in FLA House races …

7:27 PM: I’d heard some words of caution about McGrath’s numbers in KY-6. But she’s got a decent lead with 40+% of the vote. Results here.

7:32 PM: VA-7, Brat v Spanberger is now coming into view. Basically tied with a few votes. Here’s the results.

7:37 PM: I’d say we’re seeing the outlines on the east coast of the range of wins Democrats need to win the House majority. Again, predicting nothing. But they’re running well or ahead in the key seats. But still early.

Here’s my guide to watching tonight’s results and my list of the early races to watch to get a sense of what to expect over the course of the evening. Here’s some exit polls – which will be updated over the course of the evening. You can look at exits for different states, nationwide, etc.

Here’s the race I’m watching right now: Kentucky 6. (This race will be an important tell. But so far we only have a thousand votes – 6:22 pm.)

Also. This guy (Steve Schale) knows Florida. Watch his updates.

6:34 PM: Basically we have some results from Indiana and Kentucky. But tiny amounts. Really nothing that tells us anything. At 7 PM we get Florida and Virginia and some of Georgia. We’ll know a lot pretty quickly then.

6:46 PM: Okay, we’re starting to get some actual numbers from KY-6. Basically tied, with minuscule lead for McGrath. But again, sub-1% reporting. Counting real slow.

6:59 PM: About 6% in and KY-6 is really straight up tie, keeps going back and forth.

So here we are, not much left but the counting. We’ll be hosting election results on the front page of the site. But you can bookmark this page too, where you can find all the results for Congress, governors and major state propositions and referenda. If you want a list of people who are highly knowledgeable and try to make sense of the numbers in real time, here’s my Twitter list of smart election data people.

Below is a list of races to watch in the early evening to get a sense of where things are going.

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So here we are.

Because of the nature of our biennial federal elections, unified Republican control of the federal government and a thoroughly pliant Congress, Donald Trump has had free rein, more or less untrammeled, for almost two years. Democrats and all Trump’s opponents have had no recourse or ability to constrain him beyond organizing, protesting and trying to make a public case against the Trumpian slide into quasi-democracy and authoritarian rule.

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This is really, really important. We’ve talked about the various ways Republicans have tilted the electoral playing field to lock in disproportionate electoral power for Republicans, particularly older and whiter populations outside the big cities. This is another example of that played out in the attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. Read our report.

I’ve been trying to hit various polls, late shifting races and more here in the Ed Blog. But I think the best wrap is this podcast episode Cameron Joseph and I just did. We work our way through all the latest trends, what to make of the polls, possible big surprises and the heavy weight of uncertainty. You can listen here or subscribe on iTunes.

Or maybe not. Ben Smith and I were on a panel a couple weeks ago at a conference about content moderation, the press, the 1st amendment, yada yada. The conference was organized by TPM alum and now law professor big shot Kate Klonick. The panel was moderated by Jack Balkin of Yale Law School. Video of the panel after the jump …

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