David Kurtz

David Kurtz is Managing Editor and Washington Bureau Chief of Talking Points Memo where he oversees the news operations of TPM and its sister sites.

Articles by David

From the WP:

In a year of bad omens for the GOP, the latest batch of disclosure forms filed with the Federal Election Commission offers one more: Incumbency no longer means that embattled Republican representatives can expect to overwhelm weakly funded Democratic challengers with massive spending on advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.

There are 27 Republican incumbents classified by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as the most vulnerable to losing reelection this fall. These incumbents still boast a clear fundraising edge, but it is much less pronounced than in years past. According to calculations made from FEC data, the Democratic challengers in these races have raised about 60 percent of what their opponents have collected and have about the same percentage of cash on hand.

At this point in the 2004 election cycle, by contrast, Cook listed nine Republican incumbents as similarly vulnerable. Their Democratic opponents had been able to raise 42 percent of what their opponents collected, and challengers' cash on hand was a lower percentage. There were similar disparities in the 2002 cycle.

Here we go again. Republicans are running into the same kind of trouble in Ohio, where they're trying to find a successor to Bob Ney, that they have faced in Texas trying to replace Tom Delay.

Joy Padgett was handpicked by Ney and House Majority Leader John Boehner to run after Ney stepped down due to fallout from the Abramoff scandal.

The problem is that Padgett had already lost the GOP primary for Ohio lieutenant governor, and Ohio law prohibits a defeated primary candidate from running in the general election. Democrats had threatened to challenge Padgett's eligibility but, after seven other Republicans entered the primary, decided it wasn't worth the trouble.

Today the brother of one of Padgett's primary opponents filed a complaint challenging her eligibility. The local election board will rule on the complaint Sunday morning.

Update: Did I mention that Padgett declared personal bankruptcy in June? Well, one of her Republican opponents has (and you thought things were tough among Dems in Connecticut). The recent filing follows the one last year for the business owned by Padgett and her husband. Someone want to ask Boehner what he was thinking in throwing his weight behind Padgett?

Jim Webb closes the gap on George Allen in the Virginia Senate race.

Atrios was "annoyed" with my suggestion that progressive dollars could be better spent than on the Connecticut Senate race:

I'd like more of that advice going to, say, the people who gave money so that Hillary Clinton could have $22 million cash-on-hand. Does Bill Nelson need $12 million to run against Katie Harris? On the House side, does Marty Meehan, who won with 67% of the vote last time, really need to have 5 million bucks in the bank?

There is always an incredible misallocation of resources in elections and that's the money which flows to incumbents. Sure, they're not all safe and it's understandable that they need somewhat of a defensive warchest just in case, but if you want to criticize where donors are directing their money (and attention) start there.

Call me crazy, but I think I'll stick with criticizing the circular firing squad that is the Lieberman-Lamont race, rather than focusing on whether everyone has their fair share of bullets, as Atrios seems to want to do.

Early reports indicate another military setback for Israel in Lebanon:

[Israeli] security sources said commandos in two vehicles unloaded from helicopters were on their way to attack an office of senior Hizbollah official Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek in the village of Bodai when they were intercepted. After the gunbattle, the Israelis pulled out under cover of fierce air strikes.

Reports of casualties are still coming in:

Hezbollah militia fighters found bloody bandages and syringes on the ground after the battle, leading them to conclude the Israelis suffered casualties. Hezbollah, on its Al Manar television, reported a number of Israeli casualties but did not say whether they were killed or wounded.

Lebanese security officials told the Reuters news agency that three Hezbollah fighters were killed and a half-dozen Israelis were killed or wounded, but Hezbollah did not confirm the toll.

Israel claims it suffered one death and two injuries. The worry, of course, is that the aborted raid--the first major violation of the ceasefire--will prompt a Hezbollah retaliation and re-escalate the conflict.

Should progressives shift their money and attention from the Connecticut Senate race to more important contests? Absolutely.

Look, one of the Dems' problems in recent years is an inability to walk and chew gum at the same time. Rove Republicans throw everything but the kitchen sink into various electoral strategies. They don't worry if the strategies are inconsistent or even diametrically opposed. Some will work; some won't. But you don't know what will stick until you throw it against the wall. Meanwhile, Dems engage in agonizing strategy debates, looking for that one electoral silver bullet.

So I am all for multi-tasking: pay passing attention to the Connecticut race, while focusing with laser intensity on the races that will actually determine control of the Senate (as TPM Reader BM suggests below). Rove may be goading Democrats into fighting like hell amongst themselves in Connecticut, but that doesn't mean we have to take the bait.

Out of curiosity I did a few Technorati searches to compare how many mentions the various Senate challengers have gotten in the blogosphere. It's a rough gauge, but interesting nonetheless:

Ned Lamont (CT) -- 26,578 hits Sherrod Brown (OH) -- 6,764 Jim Webb (VA) -- 4,516 Bob Casey, Jr. (PA) -- 3,157 Jon Tester (MT) -- 2,325 Jack Carter (NV) -- 2,077 Claire McCaskill (MO) -- 1,976

Lamont v. Lieberman is a carnival sideshow, a titilating and distracting spectacle. Rove is the carnival barker. So ignore the hoopla and keep moving on down the midway, folks. The main event is still to come, and it will be in places like Montana, Missouri, and Ohio. We've come too far to get side-tracked now.

Number of reporters contributing to Friday's front page New York Times story on the JonBenet Ramsey case: 13

Number of reporters contributing to Friday's front page New York Times story on the federal court ruling that the NSA warrantless wiretapping program is unconstitutional: 2

I am still not sure there is much clarity regarding Israel's reported agreement to delay its air attack in southern Lebanon:

Israeli officials said nothing publicly about the suspension early Monday, and Mr. Ereli noted that Israel reserved the right to strike at militants preparing attacks against it.

An Israeli official in the prime minister’s office, who did not want to be identified, simply confirmed the State Department statement, saying, “Israel will be suspending aerial activity over southern Lebanon for 48 hours until the end of the Israeli investigation into Qana.”

As I mentioned in the post below, a report in Haaretz stated that the bombing would only be stopped in the Beirut area, a request the U.S. had made several days ago.

This is an important distinction for several reasons. First, for the Qana incident to occur while Rice was in Jerusalem ostensibly for peace talks is deeply embarrassing. Second, it prevented her from shuttling to Lebanon for further talks and made it likely that she would return to Washington with nothing to show for her efforts, another embarrassment. Third, if the Israelis only agreed to do something that the U.S. had already been urging for days, then neither the Israelis nor the Americans actually conceded anything in response to Qana, which has political implications not just in the region but in Europe as well.

It was certainly odd for the announcement of a major change in the conduct of Israeli military operations to be publicly announced by the U.S., rather than by Israel. It certainly gives the appearance that the Israelis allowed the Americans to make the announcement so that Condi could depart with at least a fig leaf of accomplishment. The question now is did they give her even a fig leaf?

Israel has agreed to some sort of cessation of hostilities, on a very limited basis, but it's not clear to me exactly what Israel agreed to do or not do.

From the NYT (emphasis added):

Late Sunday, Israel agreed to suspend its airstrikes for 48 hours while it investigates the bombing of Qana, a State Department spokesman said. The spokesman, Adam Ereli, told reporters in Jerusalem that Israel would coordinate with the United Nations to provide a 24-hour period during which residents of southern Lebanon could leave area safely.

From Haaretz (emphasis added):

Even though the prime minister announced that Israel will continue its attacks against Hezbollah, even after the sad incident at Qana, and will not accept the demand for an immediate, unconditional cease-fire - he did accede to the American request to limit air-force operations in the area of Beirut. This will be done on condition that Hezbollah will not expand its attacks against other towns in Israel, as its leader, Nasrallah, has recently threatened. . . .

The American request regarding the air force's activities in Beirut was actually made several days ago. Israel was told that this recommendation came from President Bush. Indeed, aerial operations over the Lebanese capital have slowed substantially, with no connection to the unfortunate events at Qana.

Israel was warned that in spite the fact that it is known that in a particular quarter in Beirut (Dahiya in the south), there are tunnels, and that in the main underground command center of Hezbollah, its leaders are hiding - the fact that the city is now full of refugees should be taken into account. A single mistake in a bombing raid would be enough to injure a multitude of civilians.

After what happened in Qana it is logical that the slowdown in air-force action in the skies over Beirut will continue, except if Hezbollah tries to attack other Israeli cities with long-range missiles.

So which is it? Has Israel ceased air operations throughout Lebanon or just in the Beirut area? Could the answer have something to do with the fact that a State Department official traveling with Rice announced the 48-hour delay? What has the Israeli government said?

Update: According to the Jerusalem Post, "The Prime Minister's Office confirmed the report." Well, confirming news reports of what an American official publicly said about what Israel privately agreed to is not the same thing as Israel publicly saying what it agreed to. So the jury is still out . . .

Late Update: Something's up. I had missed this earlier, but the Washington Post reported, "There was no announcement from the Israeli government about the suspension." Later Update: CNN reporting that an Israeli official confirms that Israel has agreed to a 48-hour stop to bombing in southern Lebanon.