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This is no reason for complacency, to put it mildly. I would say that Democrats will need to beat Trump by at least three percentage points to assure an Electoral College victory. Events in the Democratic primaries also give me real reason for concern.
But President Trump remains a historical unpopular President. Other Presidents have been as unpopular and more unpopular. None have ever been so consistently unpopular or disapproved of by a majority of the population literally every day of his presidency.
The White House has been working overtime to demoralize the opposition, using his impeachment acquittal and mostly baseless claims of rising poll numbers to tell a story of a resurgent President on the way to reelection. That’s mostly based on flimflam and traditional con-man tactics.